Energy in Words #1 | Volatility
Nelson Lage, President of ADENE – Portuguese Energy Agency
Volatility was a market term. Today, it defines energy. And through energy, the economy itself.
What was once a technical variable has now become a macroeconomic force. Energy shapes inflation, investment, industry, and finances. Volatility is no longer an exception. It is part of the system. It’s the rule.
This is why energy is now part of the central banks and ministries of finance vocabulary. When Christine Lagarde discusses the impact of energy shocks, which have become a source of economic uncertainty, she is not referring to a problem that will simply go away. She is talking about a new reality, a new economic condition.
The International Energy Agency is clear: Energy security and energy transition are inseparable. When that balance breaks, volatility spreads, it moves from power markets to prices, from supply chains to capital flows.
Signals are everywhere. The industry is rediscovering that exposure to energy markets leads directly to margin volatility. It also causes investment hesitation. The digital economy learns that artificial intelligence works less on algorithms and far more on electrons, and that electricity must be there and stable.
As Pedro Amaral Jorge, the CEO of APREN, has summed it up, “without electrons, there is no artificial intelligence. And not just any electrons – they must be competitive, sustainable, and strategically secured.”
Financial markets have already adjusted. The IMF showed how energy volatility increases macroeconomic risk, penalising long-term investment. Predictable energy is no longer a competitive operational advantage; it’s a financial one.
But Europe is at the centre of this tension: high energy import dependence meets ambitious climate targets and global competition in one equation. And here, Mario Draghi’s warning comes into focus: without competitive energy prices, Europe risks losing its industrial base.
Then, volatility is not noise. It is a form.
Understanding it is no longer optional. Managing it defines resilience. This is where the energy conversation now begins.
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