Energy in Words #2 | Predictability
Nelson Lage, President of ADENE – Portuguese Energy Agency
Volatility is now normal. Predictability is what makes businesses competitive.
Today, energy stability doesn´t come from a world without surprises. It comes from being prepared for shocks, managing them well, and keeping their impact as small as possible. Predictability is not about control. Predictability is about having confidence in what comes next.
This is why energy plays a crucial role in economic planning and investment. The International Monetary Fund shows that unstable energy markets increase risks for the whole economy, make long-term investments harder, and raise the cost of borrowing money. Where energy supplies are predictable, investment follows. When energy is reliable, businesses have the confidence to invest.
Predictability in energy changes the way the whole economy works.
For the industry, it means moving away from relying only on market prices and instead using contracts, generating their own energy, or using hedging strategies. When energy costs are predictable, companies can plan better, invest more easily, and stay competitive.
In a digital economy powered by AI, cloud technology, and data centres, predictable energy is even more important. At Davos, Elon Musk stressed that the true bottleneck for artificial intelligence is no longer computing power, but access to reliable and abundant electricity. Predictable energy thus becomes the foundation for growth, innovation, and technological leadership.
For finance, the message is simple: predictable energy means lower risk and lower borrowing costs. It is now a key factor in financial decisions.
The International Energy Agency explains this very well: energy security is not just about having enough energy, but also about making sure it is reliable and resilient over time. Systems that deliver steady energy can handle shocks better and protect the wider economy from disruption.
Europe understands this reality well. After years of dealing with imported energy and unstable prices, predictability is now a strategic priority. This is not about ideology, but about economic necessity.
In a global market where energy shortages and price swings are common, countries capable of keeping prices stable have a clear competitive edge. It’s becoming obvious that renewables, electrification, and efficiency are vital for supporting stability. In other words, predictability isn’t the opposite of volatility; it’s the answer to it.
In a world of constant uncertainty, predictable energy systems not only manage risk more effectively but they also strengthen competitiveness.
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