Sub-Saharan Africa renewables forecast rises 54% on rooftop and off-grid solar

Solar will make up more than 80% of the new renewable capacity sub-Saharan Africa installs to 2031 under the IEA’s Renewables 2026 forecast, which puts distributed systems at 42GW and expects South Africa and Nigeria to account for almost half of the region’s additions.

Rooftop and off-grid solar bought by households and businesses is behind the upgrade to the International Energy Agency’s sub-Saharan Africa renewables forecast, which Renewables 2026, published on 6 November, raises by 54% on the agency’s previous assessment. The IEA lifted its solar PV outlook for the region by nearly 36GW even as it cut its expectations for utility-scale solar by nearly 7GW, and it now expects distributed systems to add 42GW between 2026 and 2031, with solar making up more than 80% of all new renewable capacity installed over that period.

On the agency’s numbers, solar’s share of electricity generation in sub-Saharan Africa climbs from about 3% today to 11% by 2031, with wind reaching 7%. Hydropower still supplies nearly a third of the region’s electricity at the end of the forecast, and South Africa and Nigeria are expected to account for almost half of the new renewable capacity added across the region in those six years.

The IEA attributes the turn towards distributed systems to unreliable grid power and persistent electricity shortages, which are pushing households and businesses to generate their own supply, and it points to limited access to finance and insufficient grid infrastructure as the constraints holding back larger utility-scale projects.

Africa added a record 11.3GW of renewable capacity in 2025, according to IRENA, lifting the continent’s installed renewable base by 15.9% to 82,397MW. Across the world, the IEA expects almost 4,800GW of renewable capacity to be added between 2026 and 2031, about 60% more than in the previous six-year period, and for the first time it sees Africa and Asia leading growth outside China. Additions across sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East, North Africa and South-east Asia are forecast to almost triple compared with the six years before.

Fatih Birol, the IEA’s Executive Director, said “today, it’s mainly energy security that is driving renewables’ expansion”, adding that “the new chapter of the renewables growth story is a truly global one.”

Images: Gabriel Schumacher