African LNG projects advance as the IEA lowers its global supply outlook to 2030
TotalEnergies has more than 4,000 workers back at Afungi with first cargoes due in 2029, Eni has approved Coral Norte, and UTM signed feed gas for Nigeria’s first indigenous floating plant this month. The agency has removed around 120 billion cubic metres from projected growth by the end of the decade.
More than 4,000 workers are back on site at Afungi in Cabo Delgado. Patrick Pouyanné and President Daniel Chapo announced the full restart of Mozambique LNG on 29 January, four years after force majeure was declared, with construction around 40 per cent complete and first cargoes expected in 2029. The revised budget stands at roughly $20.5 billion.
Mozambique is not the only project moving. Eni’s Coral Sul floating facility is producing 3.4 million tonnes a year, and the $7.2 billion Coral Norte development approved to sit alongside it would roughly double that by 2028. ExxonMobil is working towards a final investment decision on Rovuma in the same province this year. Tanzania continues to pursue an agreement on its $42 billion Likong’o-Mchinga development with Shell and Equinor. In Nigeria, UTM Floating LNG signed a 15-year wet gas agreement with the NNPC and Seplat joint venture on 8 July, ahead of a decision expected in the fourth quarter.
Those commitments were made against an expectation of a comfortably supplied market. A large wave of new liquefaction capacity had been due to arrive from 2025 onwards, and the question being asked of frontier African projects was whether they could compete on cost once it did.
The International Energy Agency’s assessment has since changed. Its April gas report found that the conflict in the Middle East had altered the medium-term outlook, with damage to liquefaction infrastructure in Qatar reducing projected supply growth by a cumulative 120 billion cubic metres between 2026 and 2030. Asian buyers have been competing for a smaller pool of cargoes, prices have risen, and some countries have introduced gas rationing. New capacity elsewhere is expected to offset the losses over time, though the agency expects markets to remain tight through 2026 and 2027.
The conclusion the agency draws is about investment rather than advantage. Its position is that supply security depends on sustained investment across the whole liquefaction chain and on closer cooperation between producing and consuming countries, and that importers holding a diversified portfolio of long-term contracts are better placed to manage price volatility. Read alongside the African pipeline, that is an argument for exactly the kind of long-dated offtake the Mozambican and Tanzanian projects are built on.
None of the African developments moved because of what happened this year. Mozambique’s consortium lifted force majeure in November, Coral Norte was approved before that, and the Nigerian project has been in development for years. What has changed is the market they will supply, and the first cargoes from Afungi are still three years away.
