Bridging the Gap: Nomfundo Maseti on South Africa’s Gas Supply Future

In an interview with Energy News Network (ENN) ahead of the Africa Energy Forum (aef) 2026, Nomfundo Maseti, Full Time Regulator Member: Piped Gas Regulation at the National Energy Regulator of South Africa (NERSA), shares her perspective on South Africa’s evolving gas landscape. As the country prepares for a sharp decline in pipeline gas imports from Mozambique later this decade, Maseti discusses the emerging role of LNG, the strategic importance of developing domestic gas resources, infrastructure readiness, regional integration and the policy actions needed to build a more secure, resilient and competitive gas market.

1. With domestic production limited and pipeline imports under pressure, what do you see as the most realistic supply mix emerging over the next decade?

South Africa’s projected gas supply mix over the next decade is being shaped by practicality rather than preference. With pipeline gas from Mozambique’s Pande/Temane fields expected to decline sharply by around mid-2028, the country faces a clear and time-bound supply gap. The overriding priority is therefore security of supply and speed of delivery.

From July 2028 to June 2030, methane-rich gas (MRG) is expected to provide a critical bridging role, particularly for existing industrial users with pipeline connectivity. While limited in volume and duration, MRG will help cushion the decline of Mozambique pipeline gas and maintain operational continuity while new import infrastructure comes online.

Thereafter, liquefied natural gas (LNG) is expected to anchor the market. LNG import solutions, particularly via floating storage and regasification units, offer the shortest development timelines and can be deployed at sufficient scale to stabilise supply and support new gas-to-power capacity from around 2030.

Regional pipeline gas remains strategically important within Southern Africa but is inherently a medium- to long-term proposition. New cross-border infrastructure requires coordinated planning, long-term offtake commitments and significant upfront investment.

Domestic gas resources, including coal bed methane projects in Mpumalanga and the Free State, as well as offshore prospects such as Brulpadda and the wider Orange Basin, are strategically important to South Africa’s long-term gas security. While unlikely to resolve the immediate supply gap, they can materially improve security of supply over time while generating broader fiscal and economic benefits.

Key message: This is a sequencing strategy, not a single-solution approach. Methane-rich gas stabilises the system in the near term, LNG secures supply through the transition, and regional and domestic gas build resilience over time.

2. How do you assess the readiness of South Africa’s infrastructure ecosystem to support a more diversified gas market?

South Africa’s gas infrastructure is functional but incomplete. The country lacks several core components, most notably LNG import terminals, adequate storage capacity and sufficient inland transmission links.

The backbone of the current system is the ROMPCO pipeline, which supplies the majority of South Africa’s gas demand. It is a mature and reliable asset with available capacity; the constraint lies in the progressive decline of upstream supply from Pande/Temane gas fields in Mozambique.

South Africa currently has no operational LNG import terminals, making this the most critical gap in the system. In this context, the Richards Bay LNG import project is the most advanced domestic initiative and is emerging as South Africa’s primary long-term LNG entry point, subject to final investment decisions and regulatory approvals.

Durban and Ngqura have also been identified as potential future LNG entry points, while the potential reconfiguration of the Lilly pipeline could provide a cost-effective route for transporting regasified LNG into inland demand centres.

Regionally, the Matola LNG import terminal in Mozambique could play an important transitional role by supplying gas into existing cross-border infrastructure. Matola and Richards Bay should be understood as complementary rather than competing, with Matola providing a near-term bridge and Richards Bay anchoring the market over the longer term.

Gas storage remains underdeveloped, limiting system flexibility and resilience as gas plays a larger role in balancing variable renewable energy.

Key message: South Africa’s gas system has a strong pipeline backbone but remains incomplete without LNG import and storage infrastructure. Richards Bay and Matola provide critical LNG gateway entry points and are essential to enabling a secure, diversified and resilient gas market.

3. What are the biggest regulatory or policy bottlenecks currently slowing down gas market development?

South Africa has made important policy and regulatory interventions across the gas value chain, signalling clear intent to position gas within the country’s energy transition and energy security framework. The constraints have shifted from policy design to policy execution, coordination and finality.

Important foundations are already in place. The Upstream Petroleum Resources Development Act (UPRDA) provides a dedicated framework for oil and gas exploration and production. Proposed amendments through the Gas Bill aim to modernise the midstream to downstream regulatory regime, while the Draft Gas Master Plan sets out a long-term vision for gas demand, supply diversification and infrastructure development. Government interventions, including the Gas IPP Procurement Programme and IRP 2025 gas allocations, also provide clear demand signals.

However, implementation has lagged. The Gas Master Plan remains in draft form, while the Gas Bill and  UPRDA Regulations are still being finalised. Regulatory fragmentation across NERSA, TNPA, environmental authorities and local government continues to lengthen project timelines.

Environmental approvals remain a significant constraint, particularly for upstream exploration and offshore gas infrastructure projects. At the same time, coordination between gas policy and related frameworks such as port development, transmission planning, industrial strategy and climate policy remains inconsistent.

Key message: South Africa has done the policy thinking. The challenge now is finalisation and execution. The issue is not the absence of frameworks, but the speed, coordination and certainty with which they are implemented.

4. How do you see the role of gas evolving relative to South Africa’s broader energy transition?

NERSA’s Gas Strategy, published in 2025, explicitly defines a transitional and system-supporting role for gas in South Africa’s evolving energy mix. Gas is not positioned as an alternative to renewables or storage, but as a complementary energy carrier that supports grid stability, energy security and emissions reduction as renewable penetration accelerates.

In a coal-dominated system undergoing structural change, gas provides the dispatchable and flexible capacity required to manage the intermittency of wind and solar while maintaining reliability.

NERSA also frames gas infrastructure development within a long-term transition pathway, recognising the need to progressively shift towards low-carbon and renewable gases, including hydrogen and renewable gas blends. Investments made today should therefore be transition-ready and adaptable over time.

This approach aligns with IRP 2025, which plans for a blended system comprising large-scale renewable expansion, storage, distributed generation and gas-to-power capacity.

Key message: Gas is a system enabler in the energy transition, supporting renewables and storage, safeguarding reliability and laying the foundations for a progressive  long-term shift to low-carbon and renewable gases.

5. How important is regional integration to the future stability of South Africa’s gas supply?

Regional integration is not optional for South Africa’s gas future; it is structurally necessary. South Africa’s gas system remains heavily reliant on Mozambique’s Pande/Temane fields, with a sharp decline expected from around 2028. Domestic resources are unlikely to come online quickly enough to fill the gap.

The SADC region is exceptionally well endowed with gas resources, particularly in Mozambique, Angola and Tanzania, yet regional infrastructure remains limited. The SADC Regional Gas Master Plan provides a framework for aligning supply, demand, infrastructure and regulation across countries.

For South Africa, regional integration offers three key benefits. First, it diversifies supply through access to resources such as Rovuma LNG in Mozambique, LNG exports from Angola, emerging Tanzanian LNG developments and recent discoveries in Namibia.

Second, it lowers cost and timing risks by enabling shared infrastructure and demand aggregation. Third, it supports industrial resilience by creating cross-border demand clusters in sectors such as power generation, petrochemicals, fertilisers and transport.

However, challenges remain. Regulatory fragmentation, weak institutional coordination and misaligned pricing frameworks continue to constrain cross-border trade. Environmental and social scrutiny has also introduced delays to upstream and gas-to-power projects.

Key message: Regional integration is essential to South Africa’s gas future. The SADC Regional Gas Master Plan provides the framework; success now depends on disciplined execution, policy alignment, demand aggregation and diversification across routes and suppliers.

6. Looking ahead, what would a mature South African gas market look like?

A mature South African gas market would be characterised by diversification, transparency, competition and resilience, supported by strong regulatory certainty and aligned infrastructure delivery.

Such a market would combine LNG imports, regional pipeline gas and, over time, domestic gas resources. It would be supported by LNG import terminals, adequate regasification capacity, strategic gas storage and expandable transmission infrastructure connecting coastal entry points with inland demand centres.

Market maturity would also be reflected in transparent pricing mechanisms, regulated network tariffs and effective third-party access across pipelines, terminals and storage. A competitive market would see multiple suppliers and traders able to aggregate demand and finance projects at scale.

Gas would be deeply integrated with the electricity sector, supporting energy security, replacing diesel use in OCGTs, helping replace retired coal capacity and enabling greater renewable energy integration. It would also work in synergy with hydrogen and other renewable gases over time.

To achieve this vision, South Africa must finalise and implement the Gas Master Plan, modernise the regulatory framework, move decisively on LNG imports, accelerate approvals, secure bankable offtake commitments and make smarter use of existing infrastructure.

Key message: A mature South African gas market is one with diversified supply, bankable demand, functioning third party access and clear, enforceable regulation. Getting there now depends less on new policy and more on coordinated implementation over the next 12 to 24 months.