Nigeria’s off-grid programme has 11 million connections to find before December 2028
DARES has reached 5.3 million Nigerians against a target of 16.2 million at the project’s close, with solar home unit deployments at 1.046 million against 2.75 million. The World Bank has released further funding after Nigeria met four performance conditions, while rating political and macroeconomic risk high.
Renewable capacity enabled by Nigeria’s largest off-grid programme stood at 41.25 megawatts in June, against 465MW the project is designed to deliver. The gap between those two figures is the whole question facing Nigerian energy access over the next two years.
The Distributed Access through Renewable Energy Scale-up project, approved in December 2023 and carrying three IDA credit facilities totalling $750 million, has extended new or improved electricity to 5.3 million Nigerians. Its target at close in December 2028 is 16.2 million. Solar home unit deployments have reached 1.046 million against a target of 2.75 million, having risen from roughly 709,500 in March, which is the component moving fastest.
The pace has changed because the rules did. The Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission issued a new mini-grid framework in April and granted a derogation raising the capacity ceiling for DARES-eligible projects to 10 megawatts. The World Bank has said those moves satisfied four performance-based conditions built into the project design, releasing up to $200 million of previously locked funding, with a further $243 million pledged. More than $430 million of programme funds are now fully committed.
The Bank’s own risk register reads differently from its disbursement schedule. Political and governance risk remains rated high, unchanged since approval, as does the macroeconomic category, reflecting currency volatility and the continuing effects of fuel subsidy reform.
That caution has precedent close by. Nigeria and the World Bank agreed in May to cancel $717.7 million in undisbursed financing under the Power Sector Recovery Programme after reform milestones went unmet, bringing the operation’s closing date forward to 31 May 2026, more than a year early. The parent programme had delivered real gains, with tariff shortfalls falling 71 per cent between 2019 and 2022 and regulatory cost recovery rising from 56 to 94 per cent. The additional financing could not meet the required indicators.
Two programmes, the same lender, opposite directions. One is releasing money against conditions met, the other has closed early against conditions missed, which is a useful illustration of what performance-based financing actually does when the performance is measured.
Where DARES goes next is partly a question for the states. The Bank’s engagement with the Nigeria Governors’ Forum identified the need for technical assistance to build state-level power sector institutions, and DARES creates a platform for states to access it, with the REA working as nodal agency to bring them on as they express interest. Nigeria transferred electricity regulation to 16 subnational commissions over the past two years. The institutions receiving those powers are the ones that will decide whether the remaining 11 million connections are reachable.
