Europe closes its Russian gas contracts by 2027 and African suppliers are the nearest replacement

Long-term LNG contracts with Russian suppliers become prohibited across the European Union from January 2027, with long-term pipeline contracts ending later that year. African gas production sits closer to European ports than any alternative, and roughly 93 million tonnes a year of new global capacity is arriving at the same time.

European Union member states will be prohibited from concluding long-term LNG contracts with Russian suppliers from January 2027 under a provisional agreement that also ends long-term pipeline gas contracts by September or November of that year, the later date applying if storage targets are met.

Short-term contracts signed before June 2025 expire during 2026, amendments to existing contracts are tightly restricted and cannot increase volumes, and every member state must submit a national diversification plan setting out how it intends to replace Russian supply, with the European Commission given strengthened oversight of the process. A parallel proposal to phase out Russian oil imports is expected before the end of 2027.

What Africa brings to that gap is proximity and volume already in production, with gross natural gas output across the continent reaching around 331 billion cubic metres in 2025, led by Algeria, Nigeria and Egypt, and gas already generating 40% of Africa’s electricity, of which North Africa accounts for a 32% share.

Sub-Saharan supply is where the growth sits rather than in the established North African producers, with LNG exports from the region forecast to rise by close to 175% to 98 billion cubic metres a year by 2034, against 35.7 billion in 2024.

The projects behind that forecast are at very different stages. Greater Tortue Ahmeyim started up across Mauritania and Senegal in 2025, alongside Congo LNG Phase 2. Mozambique’s Coral South floating facility, the first of its kind in Africa, produces 3.4 million tonnes a year, with Coral North targeting a further 3.5 million by 2028 and Rovuma LNG aiming at 18 million through twelve modular trains. Tanzania holds 57 trillion cubic feet and no signed host government agreement.

Against all of it, roughly 93 million tonnes a year of new liquefaction capacity entered the market across 2025 and 2026, which points to oversupply rather than scarcity from this year onward.

Buyers choosing between competing cargoes in an oversupplied market will look at cost and shipping distance, and African producers are closer to European regasification terminals than any of the alternatives.